2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election will be a close battle, says P. Chidambaram- Jananethram News

In 2006, you had hailed the DMK manifesto as the “hero of the elections”. Can I say this time you are the hero of the DMK-Congress alliance, because, it looks, but for your intervention, the two parties could have drifted?

I am afraid no, my role is exaggerated. The Congress president asked me to meet the DMK president and Chief Minister [M.K. Stalin] and try to tie up the loose ends. I met him once. And then they agreed late in the evening.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi shared a brotherly bond with Mr. Stalin. Yet strains emerged during the alliance talks. What went wrong?

I would not attribute it to Mr. Rahul Gandhi. There were some strains in the early rounds of talks that could have been avoided. But that is all behind us. We have an amicable agreement and we will contest the elections together. I think the role of each one, need not be discussed now.

Some of the older allies of the Secular Progressive Alliance are unhappy over the seat allocation, when the Congress tally has increased and DMDK got 10 seats. Will this affect ground level coordination? Shouldn’t Mr. Stalin have been less rigid with loyal allies?

There is always some dissatisfaction all round. In a marriage, the bride side and the bride groom side will have always some dissatisfaction. As long as there is general satisfaction and some points of dissatisfaction, it means that the alliance has been negotiated correctly. I think the addition of new parties to the alliance imposed limitations on the DMK and its leader. And the admitted self confessed growth of each party increases their aspirations. Their aspirations and limitations have to find a meeting point. [As far as] the Congress is concerned, we found a meeting point at 28 and I think other leaders have also found meeting points and I saw statements by Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist). They have no after event dissatisfaction.

But when leaders publicly express dissatisfaction, the cadres could get impacted…

No, it won’t affect the grassroot coordination at all because the cadres of all parties have [in a] united voice told me and told others that we should conclude the negotiations quickly and can start the campaign. In fact, they are waiting for the campaign to start. So the cadres are not divided at all.

In my travel last week and the year before that I have met DMK, Congress, and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi workers. They all said, please conclude the negotiations quickly so that we can start the work. So the cadres have been ready for the last three months. Leaders may have had some differences, but all that has been ironed out.

Mr. Stalin is framing this elections as a fight between Tamil Nadu and New Delhi. Do you endorse this? And would such a narrative work in an Assembly election?

That’s entirely correct. You see, the puppet is the AIADMK, the puppeteer is the Bharatiya Janata Party. All the rest don’t count. Unfortunately, in an Assembly election, instead of calling the shots, the AIADMK has ceded the ground and the leadership and the direction to the BJP.

Now, the BJP is determined to pass several bills which have caused great dissatisfaction throughout the country. The IBC Amendment Bill, FCRA Amendment Bill, CAPF Amendment Bill. All these have a great impact on the whole country. When we campaign, we will expose the serious consequences of these bills. But the AIADMK doesn’t say a word in Parliament and outside. Which means it is going along with everything that the BJP is doing. The AIADMK seems to be under pressure or compulsion to toe the line.

So it is not a fight between the INDIA bloc and the AIADMK bloc. It’s really a fight between the Secular Progressive Alliance and the BJP. You will find that the main issues in this election are the ways in which BJP is injecting, imposing its Hindutva majoritarian agenda on the people of India, especially Tamil Nadu.

But AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami is asserting he is the boss of the NDA in Tamil Nadu. He appeared to be in command in allotment of seats and constituencies to allies…

He himself went to Delhi to meet the BJP leadership and seal the deal.

So Mr. Palaniswami is not in command?

He is in command of the AIADMK, but he is not in command of the election. He is not in command of the strategy, is not in command of the issues that will be discussed in the election. You wait until the issues unfold. He will look up to the BJP to defend those issues. What is his position on the IBC Amendment Bill or FCRA Amendment Bill?

With the entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam as a potentially strong disruptor, some are not ruling out the likelihood of a hung Assembly. Do you agree? I am asking because in the 2006 elections, when M. Karunanidhi and J. Jayalalithaa were around, the entry of Vijayakant’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam had reduced the victory numbers of the DMK to below 100.

See, Mr. Vijay is not Mr. MGR or Mr. Vijayakant. He is a popular actor but his fan club may not convert to voters. He will get votes, but will he get seats? I have spoken to hundreds of party workers. The uniform opinion is Mr. Vijay may get about 7 to 8% votes. One or two people say it may go up to 12%.

Now as the campaign progresses and as the election date nears, this 12% has no way of increasing. I will tell you why. It’s simple common sense. If I have three candidates, DMK, AIADMK or Congress, a BJP, I will realise as a voter very early that Mr. Vijay can’t win. In a three cornered contest, you must have at least 37% to get seats. In a four cornered contest, maybe 32% is sufficient. In a direct contest, you must have at least 43 to 45% to win. But Mr. Vijay’s party is well below the threshold. He won’t win seats. He may win if he contests in one constituency, but the people will start talking “he’s a losing candidate.” And losing candidates don’t return to the constituency. It is the number of seats Mr. Vijay wins which will lead to a hung Assembly. But if he wins zero to three seats, it won’t make a difference.

Wouldn’t he spoil the victory prospects of DMK and AIADMK?

No, the votes will be broadly divided into the AIADMK alliance and the DMK alliance. I am confident the DMK bloc will get a majority.

Mr. Stalin and Mr. Palaniswami have ruled out sharing power with allies. Is this stand right, especially when they both need allies to win elections and they had at different points shared power at the Centre?

It’s premature to talk about sharing power. The DMK and the AIADMK have reiterated their known positions. Other parties have stated their known positions that “we would like sharing of power”. So both sides have not said anything new or revolutionary. They have stated, they have iterated, their known positions and after the elections, things will happen.

But their argument is the people of Tamil Nadu will not accept a coalition agreement. Do you agree?

I don’t agree with the broad proposition that the people of Tamil Nadu will never agree to a coalition government. If it becomes necessary, since the people want a government, they don’t want another election in two months, they will accept the reality. I don’t think these broad statements are true for all time. Maybe this election it may be true. But not for all time. How can I predict what will happen 20 years later?

Do you foresee the possibility of coalition government in Tamil Nadu in the near future?

See, as long as there are two major parties, the chances of a coalition government are low. It is only when a third party becomes nearly equal to the first two parties, three strong parties, then there is a possibility of a coalition election. I am talking normative, as a rule, not with particular reference to Tamil Nadu. Maharashtra for example, there were four parties and four parties. So necessarily Mr. Devendra Fadnavis has to have a coalition. But here at the moment, there are only two dominant parties and the Congress is the third, but a little behind.

The Opposition’s main accusation against the DMK government is that law and order has deteriorated, women safety is a big concern, and availability of drugs is on the rise. Your views…

This has some element of truth. But this is a nationwide problem. I read the North Indian papers in Delhi everyday. Two pages are only about crime, burglary, sexual violence, road rage. The drug problem, the sexual violence, gender violence, is all over India. If you talk about it in general terms, it will appear that Tamil Nadu is the worst. That’s not correct. You have to take the NCRB data and you will have to see state by state. But that does not take away from the fact that whichever government is formed in Tamil Nadu must control the drug menace, must sensitise young men and boys that gender violence is the worst kind of violence and sensitise the police and train them to be more effective in controlling law and order. I have noticed in the CAPF the personnel are periodically withdrawn from duty and sent to the battalion headquarters for training and rest and recuperation. I intend to propose to the next government, I hope the DMK government, that the the police force must be withdrawn for one month in a year and sent to Battalion headquarters for rest, recuperation and training. Which means you will have to recruit one twelfth more police force, but that can be recruited.

How would you rate Mr. Stalin’s administration?

You see, you go by economic metrics, we are the fastest growing state in India. Number two, there is a bumper crop, which means they have paid attention to agriculture, irrigation, water, fertiliser, electricity. It has paid dividends. Third, we have massive outside external investment, FDI as well as from other states. See, I have got renovation and repair work in my house. Every worker is from UP, Bihar and Jharkhand. Why are Tamil young men not coming for construction work? I am not saying there is no unemployment but they have better paying jobs and jobs which give them more dignity. I think our education system has improved considerably.

Election manifestos are increasingly being dominated by promises of welfare benefits and direct cash transfer. As a former Union Finance Minister, don’t you think these are fiscally imprudent measures against the backdrop of increasing debt burden?

See, the debt burden is exaggerated. The debt burden is relevant only if you can’t finance the debt. The national debt increases year after year. But if the GDP and the GSDP increases and the revenues increase, your state’s own income increases and you are able to finance the debt, that’s okay. You must look at the fiscal deficit as a proportion of the GSDP. Tamil Nadu compares favourably with every other state.

On freebies, I have a philosophy. I believe in universal basic income (UBI). You can’t tell the poor people you wait for the next generation, your grandchildren will be better. Now you can decide what proportion of the state’s income must be given as UBI. It can be divided into different heads. Free bus travel has brought large externalities. Economists will know that a social benefit, which has economic externalities is good. The free breakfast scheme too is part of UBI. I think it’s manageable, it’s viable.

They say the real hero in an election is the cash delivered at the doorsteps of voters…

See, I have contested and won seven elections. I have never given money to voters. In fact, in the last parliamentary election no party in Sivaganga gave money to the voters. Giving money to the voters doesn’t decide an election. If a voter takes money, he takes it from both sides and then he will exercise his choice. It is like the old saying, “A judge took bribe from both sides and decided fairly.” But money must be given to get the party workers moving.

But senior politicians say “we don’t want to contest in elections because it has become very expensive”….

That is true. The elections have become expensive. The unrealistic target of ceilings fixed by the Election Commission of India is a joke. EC knows nobody adheres to the ceiling. But then there are ways in which we can legally circumvent the ceiling. If the party spends, there is no ceiling.

What’s your prediction for the Tamil Nadu election?

It will be a close election because the parties are arrayed in two strong fronts. The entry of the BJP under Mr. Modi [Prime Minister] and Mr. Shah [Home Minister] has injected a certain element which I can’t describe openly. But they will use every device, every tactic to win the election, to influence the election and to win it if possible. It will be a close battle. I have warned my party men. It will be close battle, but we will win. It will not be a completely one sided battle like the 2024 parliamentary action. The AIADMK lost the deposit in seven seats. That’s unheard of for the AIADMK.

The AIADMK workers realise they have got a mountain to climb. The DMK workers realise they are on the top of the mountain and they should not allow them to be dragged down. The Congress is confident where it is strong. But I think the ultimate result will be that the DMK alliance will have a comfortable majority and the DMK will form the government.